LiveUpdated 5 Oct 2026, 07:01 UTC
EventAlpha tracks Polymarket prices around the clock, filters out the noise and explains what changed, why, and what to watch next.
Free to read · Read-only · Not financial advice
Top signal right now
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?
23%-16.0pp in 24h
Strong signal · high activity
Why: No reported cause found yet. Check the news before reading too much into it.
Watch: Watch for a news report that explains it, and whether the move holds over the next day.
What's moving now
Ranked by how much evidence is behind each move — trading activity, depth, timing and whether a cause has been reported — not just by the size of the jump.
Outcome: ↓ 2,250
23%▼ -16.0pp in 24h
High activity · $268K traded in 24h · $28K liquidity
Outcome: Spain snap election called by October 31?
74%▲ +23.5pp in 24h
Solid activity · $28K traded in 24h · $1K liquidity
Outcome: ↓ 70,000
24%▼ -6.0pp in 24h
Solid activity · $45K traded in 24h · $72K liquidity
Noise we filtered out
We just reviewed the 40 most active and fastest-moving events. 8 had enough trading and evidence behind the move to count as a signal; 1 was set aside as noise.
How we filter →Explore by topic
Each topic page shows its active markets, today's moves and what's coming up.
Coming up
Actively traded markets that are still genuinely uncertain and close soon. Prices often move most as a deadline approaches.
How it works
Track every price
We record Polymarket probabilities, trading activity and market depth throughout the day.
Filter the noise
Moves in thin, barely traded or already-decided markets are set aside, so one small trade can't fake a headline.
Find the cause
We look for news that lines up with the move and check whether related outcomes moved too.
Show what to watch
Each signal comes with its deadline, related markets and what would confirm or undo the move.
EventAlpha explains market movement. It does not recommend positions or place trades. Read the methodology.
Keeping ourselves honest
We re-check meaningful moves about a day later and publish the result, including the ones that reversed. This measures whether a move held — not whether anyone made money.
See the full track record →Based on 19,297 moves re-checked 20–36 hours later. "Held flat" means less than 1 point of further change.
Stay on top of it
A 60-second morning email: the moves worth your attention, why they happened, what was just noise, and what to watch next.
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