EAEventAlpha

Read-only Polymarket market intelligence

See what changed,what matters,and what may be noise.

Scan Polymarket faster. EventAlpha surfaces fresh probability moves, low-confidence signals, resolution-watch markets, and plain-English context from stored market data.

Read-only market intelligence from stored Polymarket data. No trading, no financial advice, and no implied certainty.

Read Daily BriefExplore Markets
Markets Tracked
8,815
Biggest 24H Move
-44.0pp
24H Volume
$505.3M
Data Source
Polymarket
Data Freshness
4 Jul 2026, 00:01 UTC

Top Markets Today

Fresh meaningful movers ranked by signal quality, liquidity, and movement — not raw pp alone.

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Politics
HighFresh

Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?

Included because probability moved -12.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.

Meaningful move

23%

-12.0pp
Vol $94KCloses 31 Dec 2026

How EventAlpha helps

Built for quick market scanning, not trading. EventAlpha highlights what changed, what matters, and what may be noise.

01

Start with what changed

Open the Daily Brief to see fresh probability moves, active categories, and markets worth checking first.

02

Separate signal from noise

Each market is labelled with signal quality, freshness, and a reason it was included.

03

Spot resolution watch markets

Near-certain or close-deadline markets are framed as resolution watch or stable consensus, not fresh breaking moves.

04

Understand the market faster

Market pages explain probability movement, liquidity, snapshot history, resolution rules, and related markets in plain English.

05

Research without trading UI

Use EventAlpha as a read-only layer before deciding whether to investigate a market on Polymarket.

06

Avoid stale confidence

Freshness labels and low-confidence sections help prevent outdated or thin-market moves from looking more important than they are.

Biggest Probability Movers

Largest 24-hour shifts in market-implied probability across all categories.

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Will GBP/USD hit 1.30 (Low) in 2026?47%Will Gracie Abrams attend Taylor Swift's wedding?50%Will ground beef hit $9 per pound in 2026?49%Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?67%Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year in the top 20?41%

Highest Activity Markets

Markets with the highest 24-hour trading volume right now.

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Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027?Stable consensusFreshStable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).0%$2.1MWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?High activityFreshIncluded as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only 0.0pp.90%$1.6MWill Katie Boulter win the 2026 Women’s US Open?Stable consensusFreshStable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.05pp).0%$1.5M

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Methodology Preview

How EventAlpha interprets market signals

Our analytics layer transforms prediction market pricing into readable probability intelligence — designed for research and briefing, not execution.

Activity and liquidity figures reflect public market data and may vary by source.

01

Market-implied probability

We surface consensus probability levels derived from prediction market pricing, normalized for display and comparison.

02

Probability movement

Daily and intraday shifts highlight where market sentiment is shifting fastest — a signal for further research, not action.

03

Volume-weighted context

Higher-activity markets receive priority in rankings to reflect where collective conviction is most concentrated.

04

Category analytics

Cross-market digest views help you scan themes across politics, macro, crypto, sport, tech, and geopolitics.